On 16 September, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger created the Alliance of Sahel States (known by the French Acronym, AES) to combat their shared security threats. The Sahel is a hotspot for terrorist groups, who frequently cross borders to escape security services. AES is a shift away from the members’ traditional security partners like the UN, EU, and France. AES members see the alliance as a way to combat terrorist groups and counterbalance regional actors like the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Despite the agreement, AES members will struggle to address their mounting security crises.

Key Judgement 1: It is highly likely that the alliance will fail to develop further than a defensive alliance due to a lack of economic and intergovernmental bodies. 

Key Judgement 2: It is likely that the combined military strength of AES and the assistance of Wagner PMC will be unable to thwart violence due to a lack of aerial resources and prior levels of foreign assistance.

Key Judgement 3: It is unlikely that AES relations with West Africa’s regional organisations will improve in the next 12 months.