Arctic Indigenous Peoples’ security concerns often coalesce around forced displacement, cultural and linguistic intrusion, assimilation policies, and pollution. Indigenous populations include the Inuit in the Canadian and American Arctic, the Sámi in northern Sweden, Norway, and Finland, and the Evenki in Russia and China.

Key Judgement 1: It is highly likely that human security concerns among Arctic Indigenous people will persist well past 2024.

Key Judgement 2: It is highly probable that energy extraction will pose a serious impediment for Arctic Indigenous communities.

Key Judgement 3: There is unlikely to be political unanimity amongst Indigenous populations in the next 12 months.