On 26 February, the Norwegian Intelligence Service (NIS) issued several unclassified risk and threat assessments for Norway, for the year ahead. Prime among them include an increase in terrorist incidence, the suspension of reconciliatory processes in the Middle East, and an accelerated arms race [source]. In conjunction with our previous assessment of Norway’s 2024 Arctic Strategy, this report contextualises the NIS’ 2024 Focus assessment and documents its key findings.

Key Judgement 1. It is highly likely that Norway will continue its efforts to promote disarmament and non-proliferation amid the growing arms race across China, Russia, and North Korea.

Key Judgement 2. Norwegian personnel and vested interests in the Middle East will likely remain under threat due to the suspension of reconciliatory processes.

Key Judgement 3. It is likely that Norway’s internal measures will focus on reducing the potential of an IS terrorist attack in the next 12 months.