Since January 2023, Haiti has possessed no legitimate government and is currently being socially and constitutionally decimated by violent gang rule. In 2023, the G9 Alliance and G-Pep enacted the pact ‘viv ansanm’ (English: live together) in collaboration to oust Prime Minister Ariel Henry [source].

Near-term prospects for Haiti’s political, social, and economic stability remain dire, with the country facing a serious humanitarian crisis. Calls for intervention have garnered little Western attention. The UNSC only recently voted on a US-drafted resolution supporting multilateral police deployment. In our previous analysis, we offered a probabilistic assessment of the deployment of Keynan contingents as part of the MSS. However, on 12 March, Ariel Henry announced his intention to cede power to a transitional council. Earlier plans to deploy a UN-backed mission have run into delays, with a force now unlikely to arrive before the second half of 2024. This report analyses the security vacuum left in the wake of Ariel Henry’s resignation, gang warfare, and alleged US arms smuggling.

Key Judgement 1. It is likely that Haiti’s internal gang syndicate will indirectly benefit from illicit US arms smuggling over the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 2. The G9 Alliance will likely capitalise on the political vacuum in the next 12 months following Ariel Henry’s resignation, subsequently forcing Haitian authorities to capitulate to Chérizier’s demands.

Key Judgement 3. Haitian gangs will likely weaponise sexual violence to subjugate the general population in the next 12 months.