On 12 March, rebel forces aligned against Vladimir Putin’s government launched a military incursion into Belgorod Oblast. This is the third such incursion in two years. Residents of Russian border villages fled in the face of violent clashes between paramilitary groups and Russian National Guard units. Both Ukraine and Russia claim some degree of victory or strategic advantage from these raids. These competing narratives create a grey zone of information. We will analyse the actual achievements of these raids, their potential impact on other restless Russian regions, and the probability of more cross-border attacks in the near future.

Key Judgement 1. It is likely that cross-border incursions into Belgorod Oblast prompt Russia to divert manpower and assets away from the east in order to protect its southern flank in the next 6 months.

Key Judgement 2. It is likely that cross border incursions into Belgorod will embolden other resistance groups within Russian republics in the next 6 months.

Key Judgement 3. It is highly likely that Ukraine will continue to sponsor cross-border incursions by Russian resistance groups in the next 6 months.