Over the past 12 months, geopolitical tensions within Tajikistan have escalated. Russian accusations over the Tajik state’s inability to deal with radical Islamism within its borders in response to the Crocus Hall terror attack have occurred. Also, tensions within the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) have risen, including violence and an increase in smuggling. Further, tensions over energy and water access have occurred, resulting in rolling blackouts and restricted access to water. In the upcoming 12 months, Tajikistan will have to deal with expected scarcity and escalating geopolitical tensions because of its strategic location in the Central Asian region.

Key Judgement 1. It is highly likely that Tajikistan-Russia relations will be strained in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 2. It is likely that further tensions around the Tajikistan Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) will rise in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 3. It is highly likely that resource scarcity issues will be a central focus of the Tajikistan government in the next 12 months.