In June 2024, the Supreme Court of Bangladesh revived a 2018 quota system assigning 30% of government jobs to descendants of 1971 independence fighters. This decision ignited widespread outrage, particularly among university students who viewed it as discriminatory. Initially local, the protests rapidly expanded nationwide as police and political extremists used heavy-handed and deadly tactics against those opposing PM Sheikh Hasina. Under heavy criticism because of her authoritarian measures, and incapable of quelling the crowd, the prime minister finally opted to flee to India (source). This unexpected twist leaves the country to deal with the aftermath of an economic downturn and a long trail of violence. 

Key Judgment 1. It is highly likely that clashes between police, students, and paramilitary groups will deepen political extremism and polarization.

Key Judgment 2. The recent unrest will likely deepen the economic recession and weaken the country’s global market position.

Key Judgment 3. It is highly likely that evidence of human rights violations will increase as national and international investigations inquire into the events and the internet becomes accessible again.