Jihadism in Spain has changed over the last two decades. From an operational perspective, hierarchical structures of foreign fighters have morphed into independent networks of homegrown terrorists with flexible loyalties regarding affiliations and beliefs. 

Nowadays, individuals involved in jihadism access and disseminate propaganda from organizations with antagonistic ideological nuances, without this proving to be inconsistent. Homegrown narratives in Spain have substituted Al-Qaeda and Bin Laden with Islamic State radicalization propaganda.

Data obtained by academic researchers and intelligence officers suggest that decentralization and fragmentation of terrorist initiatives are not the only change. Individuals with judicial records and identity conflicts now overrepresents the social profiles of local jihadism.

Key Judgement 1. It is highly likely that “lone wolfs” will remain as the actual main source of jihadism threat in Spain. Other threats will likely include independent networks with no operational capacity.

Key Judgement 2. Terrorist tactics by Spanish jihadists are highly likely to continue unsophisticated and poorly planned. Most of the activity is highly likely to involve online recruitment.

Key Judgement 3. It is almost certain that individuals with criminal records and multicultural backgrounds will remain the most vulnerable group to radicalisation propaganda and jihadist recruitment.