Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Russia’s substantial military withdrawal has led to a strategic realignment in Syria, fostering instability and potential conflict escalation in the region. This withdrawal has allowed Iranian military forces and Hezbollah to strengthen their presence in Syria’s southern region, increasing the likelihood of a new front opening between Israel and Syria. Additionally, Russia is intensifying diplomatic efforts to bolster relations between Assad’s regime and Turkey, aiming to realign regional alliances amidst the shifting power dynamics. These developments underscore the potential for increased tensions and conflict along the Israel-Syria border in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 1. It is highly likely that the decreased Russian activity will favour escalations and cause a strategic realignment in Syria in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 2. It is likely that these escalations will open a new front at the border between Israel and Syria in the next 12 months. 

Key Judgement 3. It is highly likely that Russia will increase diplomatic efforts to strengthen relations between Assad’s regime and Erdogan’s Turkey in the next 12 months.