In 2022 the Nord Stream pipelines were sabotaged via an underwater explosive. Originally, this attack was blamed on a Russian false flag. However, recent revelations which implicate a Ukrainian national have bolstered claims that the Ukrainian government may have actually been aware of the attack. Relations between Germany, Poland and Ukraine have also been strained over reluctance from the Polish government to arrest the individual blamed for the attack. Additionally, Russia has attempted to take advantage of the political divisions surrounding these investigations. They have placed blame on Germany for not investigating the attacks properly but also simultaneously claimed that they were right in wanting to investigate fully.

Key Judgment 1. It is likely that relations between Germany, Poland and Ukraine will suffer due to revelations regarding the sabotage. 

Key Judgment 2. It is likely that there was some Ukrainian involvement in the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines.

Key Judgment 3. It is highly likely that Russia will attempt to take advantage of the political divisions surrounding the Nord Stream pipeline’s sabotage.