The recent intensification of the Islamic State (IS) activities in Iraq and Syria has raised alarms about regional security, prompting increased attention from the U.S.-led coalition. Over the past months, IS has escalated attacks, exploiting regional instability to attempt a resurgence. In response, both Iraqi and American forces have intensified operations, successfully targeting and disrupting IS leadership. Despite the increased activity, strategic strikes and strengthened Iraqi capabilities aim to prevent IS from regaining significant power. Continued U.S. logistical and intelligence cooperation supports these efforts to limit IS’s operational capacity in the coming year. The current geopolitical instability in the Middle East further complicates efforts to stabilise the region. These evolving security dynamics underscore the critical nature of sustained international collaboration to counter the IS threat effectively and ensure long-term peace and stability in this volatile area.

Key Judgement 1. It is highly likely that the Islamic State’s activity will intensify in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 2. U.S. military presence will likely decrease in the next 12 months, but it will continue to provide operational support to the Iraqi government. 

Key Judgement 3. Despite its increased activity, IS is unlikely to gain power or significantly improve its operational capacity in Iraq in the next 12 months.