We assess that Russia will continue to weaponise migration to destabilise European nations. This is part of a greater campaign of Russian covert action measures, including in the cyber realm. This form of covert action involves the transport of migrants to a country’s borders to overwhelm that nation’s immigration system and create tension in their domestic politics. Russia’s presence in Syria, Libya and Africa is also linked to mass migration into Europe. [Source]

Russia has historically used migration as a tool of the state. Under the Soviet Union, Moscow transplanted Russian populations into various areas of the former Soviet Union. This includes Eastern Ukraine (Donbas, Luhansk etc), Estonia and other areas with the aim to change the demographics of the region in order to create local communities that were more ‘loyal’ to Russia. [Source, source]

Finland and Poland are at the forefront of Russian attempts to utilise this covert action form. Both countries have resorted to implementing tougher legislation and, in Poland’s case, physical security measures aimed at countering the rise in migrant’s border crossing attempts.