Executive Summary

Since the end of 2023, we have observed an increase in the number and sophistication of piracy incidents in the Red Sea. We assess that the trend is driven by Al-Shabaab’s financial needs and the willingness of the group to work with, and also learn from, pirates and more capable regional partners, namely the Houthis. This development presents an evolving threat to regional and maritime security in the Horn of Africa and the Western Indian Ocean.