Executive Summary

The North Atlantic Treaty Alliance’s (NATO) previous response to Russian maritime activity, including use of spy ships, in the Baltic Region and European Economic Zone (EEZ) waters has not deterred Moscow from further incursions. This is yet another source of tension between the West and Russia. 

Russia’s repeated presence in the region, most recently in January 2025, indicates that more significant NATO efforts, including against Russia’s “shadow fleet,” are required to deter further action by Moscow in these waters. We assess that NATO’s future response to Russian maritime activity will likely focus on the Baltic Sea region.