Executive Summary

We assess that the current wave of protests in Kenya, driven mainly by the younger generation, is reflective of the deeply ingrained economic, social, and political problems the country is facing. The inability of the current government of President William Ruto to resolve issues related to cost of living, youth unemployment, political accountability, and corruption is a key driver of social unrest in the country. At the same time, the government’s response to the protests centered around a violent crackdown. This includes reported tallies of the number of people dead, wounded, and arrested climbing. That said, we do not see indications that the current protests and Kenya’s response will lead to a slowdown of security cooperation. This includes cooperation with regional partners and Western actors like the United States.

Background: The protests started first in 2024. Then, the government planned to introduce a bill that would raise taxes on essentials like bread, cars and mobile money transfers. The subsequent pressure forced the government to withdraw the bill. The protests continued in 2025, intensifying around important dates such as the Saba Saba Day anniversary, and spanning 16 – 17 of the 47 total counties in Kenya.

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