Executive Summary 

Washington shows no signs of stopping its military campaign against Venezuelan vessels suspected of running narcotics in the Caribbean, with current activity suggesting both an escalation in operational tempo and strike lethality. The White House confirmed through social media postings that at least four vessels were targeted and destroyed near Venezuela during September, including one speedboat that was engaged with multiple explosive projectiles of unidentified airframes.

Nicolás Maduro is responding to the flashpoint by increasing the recruitment of civilian militias, with multiple reports signalling the conscription and training of thousands of civilians. Furthermore, internal documents reviewed by Grey Dynamics reveal the widespread activation of recruitment centres across the country. Images taken by foreign correspondents and local journalists also confirm the presence of Venezuelan Militia recruiters in impoverished shantytowns and rural areas. 

Despite the heavy display of internal cohesion in military exercises and political speeches, Caracas is dealing with undetermined internal challenges in its armed forces that could lead to a limited number of defections and desertions among senior military officers. Recent arrests and investigations of high-ranking personnel suggest the United States’ ongoing buildup in Puerto Rico is compounding the already present internal fractures of Venezuela’s army and air force.