Executive Summary

Preliminary indications that the August 2025 Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA)* between Mozambique and Rwanda is improving security in Mozambique are offset by ongoing challenges. The full impact of the agreement remains to be seen. Irrespective, we assess that the RDF is likely to maintain, if not expand, its presence in Mozambique and nearby countries as part of Rwanda’s broader strategy of ‘’military diplomacy,’ at least through 2026.

*The agreement formalised the legal framework governing the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) troops that support counter-terrorism operations in Mozambique’s northern province. The agreement institutionalised Rwanda’s bilateral security role in Cabo Delgado, where an Islamist insurgency has persisted despite earlier interventions by Mozambican forces. The actual deployment of these forces first occurred in July 2021 to support Mozambican forces against the insurgents. The SOFA is considered a part of the country’s military diplomacy, which is the main strategy of Rwanda’s international agenda.