Executive Summary

Following the atrocities conducted by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in el-Fasher, Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have rallied in support of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). Sudan’s allies are conducting military operations against the RSF while applying diplomatic pressure to the RSF’s allies. These measures have the potential to present a source of real pressure on RSF operations, but their effectiveness remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, clashes between the RSF and SAF affiliates have spilled over into neighbouring Chad, forcing N’jamena to close the border. This almost certainly will deepen the humanitarian crisis ongoing among Sudanese refugees.

Neither the RSF nor the SAF show any indication of de-escalating violence, while the UAE and Ethiopia continue to support and train RSF militants. All this said, we assess that it is unlikely that a resolution will emerge in 2026 absent significant outside intervention.