Executive Summary
The United States is almost certain to continue increasing political and economic pressure against the Cuban Regime in the near term, with a likely intent to achieve a controlled political transition, mirroring the early-stage playbook seen during Operation Absolute Resolve in Caracas.
Regardless of the visible presence of multiple Pentagon military assets in the Caribbean and the increase in surveillance flights near Cuba since February, we do not see any indications that could support the assessment that a direct action or kinetic strikes are imminent as of this writing.
Compounding the public absence in theatre of special mission units or dedicated operations platforms that could signal intent, the current force posture of the Pentagon in the Caribbean remains materially below the combat capability displayed during Operation Absolute Resolve in January.
Meanwhile, the White House appears to be resorting to classic spy diplomacy, but with an implied threat of covert action, and we expect CIA Director Ratcliffe to continue playing a role in political and military negotiations between Washington and Havana.