Executive Summary

Recent battlefield developments in conflicts ranging from Sudan to Colombia and from Eastern Europe to the Middle East indicate that drone warfare is expanding beyond its traditional roles in intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and precision strike missions into a broader multi-domain ecosystem. Across the globe, various actors are employing aerial drones for air-to-air offensive engagements, as well as defensive operations, demonstrating a transition from air-to-ground combat to emerging roles in aerial warfare.

Meanwhile, maritime warfare is experiencing a gradual increase in the use of unmanned systems, with both aerial and seaborne drones being integrated into naval operations. Ukraine remains the leading environment for experimentation with confirmed operations in the Black Sea, but the United States in mid-July conducted a seaborne attack against an Iranian submarine facility in Bandar Abbas. Fighters have also expanded the use of ground drones from combat support roles into multi-domain operations that include amphibious landings and aerial missions, but for now their fielding remains limited to Ukraine. 

Key Judgements

KJ-1. Drone use is transitioning from traditional air-to-ground combat and surveillance platforms into more active air-to-air systems worldwide.

1. Colombian guerrillas in Popayán on July 17 attempted, but failed, to attack a hovering army Huey helicopter with a fibre-optic drone. [source, source, source]
2. Ukrainian Magura Brigade reported on July 13 the destruction of four Russian Kronshtadt Orion drones through the employment of a Cyclop interceptor drone o3. [source, source]
3. The Sudanese Armed Forces on July 7 used a Turkish-built Bayraktar drone to down a Chinese-made CH-95 drone flown by the rebel Rapid Support Forces. [source, source]

KJ-2. The increasingly prevalent use of unmanned ground vehicles in multidomain warfare is likely to remain confined to the conflict in Ukraine in the short term.

1. Ukraine on July 20 officially confirmed that it has developed 2,000 unmanned ground vehicles, with the intent to make them exchangeable with heavy aerial bombers through the Brave1 Marketplace. [source]
2. According to a video released on July 18 by Ukrainian combat veteran Dimko Zhluktenko, Kyiv is already fielding unmanned ground vehicles as a launching platform for fibre optic drones in Eastern Ukraine. [source]
3. Ukrainian forces in the first week of July executed an amphibious landing against Russian rear-line positions in Kinburn Spit that combined unmanned landing craft and unmanned ground vehicles. [source]

KJ-3. The use of seaborne and aerial drones in maritime warfare is increasing; we do not see any indications that this trend will abate in Ukraine or the Middle East.

1. As of late July, Ukrainian Armed Forces drones operating in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea had targeted and neutralised 196 cargo vessels belonging to Russia’s shadow fleet as part of Operation Moloch. [source, source]
2. The same month, Russia’s Rubicon Detachment was deployed in the Black Sea as a response to recent air-to-sea attacks, according to a public statement by the acting commander of Ukrainian Unmanned Systems. [source]
3. The United States in mid-July employed three Corsair unmanned surface vessels to attack an Iranian submarine maintenance facility in Bandar Abbas, the Pentagon’s first publicly reported seaborne drone attack. [source]

Statement on Analysis

We assess with high confidence that drone warfare is undergoing a transition from its traditional scope toward integrated multi-domain environments. This assessment is supported by a combination of official military statements, combat footage and media reporting obtained through open-source research. 

While these sources provide valuable indicators of operational trends, they present limitations regarding verification of actual battlefield effectiveness. Public claims regarding operational success and mission outcomes could be affected by deliberate propaganda efforts or incomplete battlefield visibility.

Among the variables or developments that could change our view would be any evolution of improved electronic warfare and air defence systems that could neutralize unmanned platforms to an extent that challenges the observed trajectory of the rise of unmanned platforms towards a central component of future multi-domain warfare.

Intel Cut-Off Date: 23 July, 2026