The Tajik-Kyrgyz dispute over border demarcation and water rights affects the wider central Asian security architecture. The dispute periodically erupts in violence, signalling that the two neighbours are on a collision course.

KJ-1: It is highly unlikely that Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will reach an agreement over border demarcation and water sharing in the next six months. 

• Clashes between Tajik and Kyrgyz border troops are common occurrences [source]. The most serious bout of violence occurred last April. Despite a Russian-brokered ceasefire, skirmishes between the two neighbours have steadily increased [source].

• Over 98% of Tajik energy consumption is provided by hydroelectric dams [source]. Kyrgyzstan similarly obtains over 90% of its energy from hydropower [source]. The Isfara River and its tributaries also support the central Asian agricultural basin.  

• Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are using alternative cartographic sources to demarcate their boundaries [source].

KJ-2: It is likely that armed confrontation between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will escalate in the next six months. 

• Russian brokered ceasefires have largely failed to temper the conflict in recent years. Beyond interstate confrontation, local Kyrgyz and Tajik communities regularly erupt in communal violence [source]. Various factors such as crumbling hydroelectric infrastructure, climate change and ethno-nationalistic impulses are proving to be a toxic admixture [source]. 

• As the cumulative pressure increases on both governments, either party will find it increasingly difficult to reach an agreement. Discussions between the two countries’ foreign ministers have proven to be ineffective [source].

KJ-3: It is likely that the Tajik-Kyrgyz border conflict will affect wider instability in central Asia in the next six months.

• Uzbekistan relies on water from the Kyrgyz and Tajik highlands to sustain its cotton production [source]. This is essential for its economic livelihood.

• Uzbekistan may be compelled to respond through a variety of means not limited to force. Meanwhile, violent incidents along the Kyrgyz-Uzbek border are still prevalent [source].

• The Taliban government of Afghanistan is currently in dispute with the Tajiks over issues relating to their own border [source].

• Additionally, the introduction of Iranian-made combat systems into the region has heightened the level of insecurity which defines the Tajik-Kyrgyz arms race [source]. 

• While the border conflict between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan has simmered at a manageable level for decades, last April saw the worst violence erupt since before the establishment of the USSR.

Intelligence Cut-Off Date: July 11, 2022