Executive Summary

We assess that China will attempt to expand its economic and geopolitical posture in the Arctic through growing investments and a stronger alignment with Russia, despite some disagreements between the two nations.

While China does not have its own Arctic shoreline, it considers itself a “near-Arctic state” and claims a voice in decision-making on Arctic affairs. In 2018, China introduced its first Arctic policy. China’s interest in the Arctic region has been growing in recent years. It is in line with its strategic ambitions to increase global influence, secure natural resources, and widen its shipping routes. China’s extensive Arctic research program is dual-use, fueling new knowledge into the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) military decision-making for Arctic scenarios as part of its military-civil fusion. Additionally, Beijing is increasingly cooperating with Russia to develop cooperation in various areas and jointly limit Western influence in the Arctic region. [source, source, source]