Executive Summary 

Canada’s Arctic strategy is anchored in a long-term effort to reinforce its defence posture and surveillance capabilities in the aerospace domain. Central to this approach is the modernisation of early warning platforms and quick response assets, as Ottawa has committed to upgrading long-range detection systems covering the northern approaches to North America.

Despite expected improvements in the coming months, Canada’s ability to project force in the Arctic through air and sea will remain limited in the near-to-medium term, as serving and upcoming military platforms are designed for surveillance missions instead of combat operations. Canadian submarines patrolling areas close to the Arctic are also expected to remain focused on intelligence collection efforts for the next nine years.

Russia is highly likely to remain Canada’s principal peer adversary in the Arctic, given its established military infrastructure and ongoing reconnaissance patrols across the High North. However, the available indicators do not suggest the Kremlin has adopted an imminent expansionist or directly threatening posture toward Canada.