Bulgarian-Ukrainian relations have seen a marked decrease amidst the backdrop of recent accusations by President Rumen Radev that NATO risks escalation and also a ‘nuclear armageddon’. However, Bulgarian acquisition of arms and equipment has increased as well as an increase in investment into the Bulgarian arms industry. Additionally, there has been an increase in espionage activities aimed at gathering information on Bulgaria’s key national infrastructure. In response, Bulgaria has been increasingly active in apprehending and arresting suspected spies and informants. [Source]

Key Judgment 1. Bulgarian-Ukrainian relations will likely become increasingly strained in the next 12 months.

Key Judgment 2. It is highly likely that Bulgarian-Ukrainian weapons deals will increase in the next 12 months.

Key Judgment 3. It is highly likely that Bulgaria will increasingly arrest spies and suspected foreign agents in the next 12 months.