Executive Summary

U.S. President Donald Trump’s executive order designating Mexican drug cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organisations (FTOs) is an unprecedented step in America’s counternarcotics policy. It elevates the recognition of the threat from an issue of organised crime to one of national security. Additionally, the issue of healthcare for addictive substances is also elevated to one of greater significance. This designation may open opportunities to employ more national resources against the problem. This includes U.S. military special forces and CIA covert action capabilities. However, based on historical precedence, we assess that the FTO designation of drug cartels, if it leads to successful short-term kinetic and financial actions, will likely lead to the fragmentation of the drug production and supply infrastructure in Mexico. Therefore, this is likely to further complicate counternarcotics efforts over the long haul.

(FTO designation may also allow the White House to invoke the authorities of Executive Order 13224, signed by former President George Bush, Jr. in 2001. Furthermore, this executive order allows for the disruption of financial support to terrorist organisations by blocking the assets of foreign individuals involved. This possible ramification of the FTO designation lies outside the scope of this report.)

Images Sourced From: U.S. Customs and Border Protection Office of Public Affairs, ICE