Chad Security Crisis: A 6-month Forecast

The Republic of Chad faces a complex security crisis across and within its territory. Porous borders and contested spaces in the region foster the proliferation of political and local armed entities who oppose the regime in N’Djamena (source). Moreover, internally, the country has a long history of rebellion (source). Indeed, in April 2021, then-President Idriss Déby was allegedly killed while fighting FACT rebels in the country’s north. Since then, his son Mahamat Déby seized power backed by the military (source). Despite ranking 190 out of 191 on the Human Development Index (source), the country possesses powerful armed forces. This makes Chad a strategic partner for Western powers in managing terrorism and instability across the region (source).