Conflict in Syria is fluid. Major events are developing on the frontlines every hour. Hama, Aleppo, Daraa, Homs and Damascus are now under control of a transitional government. Meanwhile, what’s left of the Syrian Army is surrendering to the Syrian Opposition as Bashar al-Assad is considered overthrown. Grey Dynamics aims to provide accurate updates and real-time tactical analysis of the situation on the ground.
Area of Interest: Syria
Start Date: 06 December 2023
Scope of Analysis: Publicly Available Information (PAI) and Commercial Available Information (CAI) showing Hay’at Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) and Syrian Army (SAA) disposition and capabilities in the actual frontline, as well as Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Islamic State (ISIS) and Southern Operation Room (SOR) confirmed movements in Syria. Statements of diplomatic services and elected officials from the US and the EU. Also included, are citations from Russian and Iranian foreign departments
11/12/2024
- [16:00 CET] HTS announces that SAA elements accused of engaging in torture against civilians will not be pardoned by the amnesty. [source]
- [14:00 CET] US vehicles are seen moving towards Raqqa. Additional reports suggest the convoy was blocked by RUS forces in Qamishlo. [source]
- [12:00 CET] IDF troops moved toward abandoned SAA positions in the Red Hill of Qumetroa Province. [source]
- [00:00 CET] SDF General Commander announces ceasefire in Syria. SNA will stop the offensive and the SDF will retreat of the west of the Euphrates. [source]
Tactical Analysis
Conflict in the eastern provinces between the Syrian National Army (SNA) and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) currently represent the prime threat to the transitional government in terms of national stability. Washington is highly likely to increase the pressure on Ankara, as the Syrian National Army (SNA) continues to engage the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Furthermore, the latter organization is likely to suffer sectarian-motivated defection amongst their ranks, especially in cities and towns located west of the Euphrates.
10/12/2024
- [20:30 CET] CENTCOM confirms the visit of General Kurilla to deployed US troops and SDF liason personel in Syria [source]
- [19:30 CET] The SDF has decided to withdraw from Deirezzor after push from suspected SNA proxies in the city. IDF airstrikes are currently targeting abandoned positions [source]
- [17:00 CET] SDF holded a massive SNA assault on on the Quaraquwzaq Bridge, south of Kobani. Over a hundred SNA militants were killed in combat acoording to the SDF. [source]
- [14:30 CET] Multiple sources reports a secondary SNA offensive on SDF positions in Kobane [source] [source]
- [12:00 CET] SNA militants advance with Turkish support into SDF positions in Tishrin, battle for the dam is ongoing [source]
- [09:00 CET] IDF spokesperson claims Israel will stay inside the buffer zone Golan Heights and not push further into Syria [source]
- [06:00 CET] SDF official confirms to Rudaw English that the democratic forces lost control of Manbi city to SNA advancing forces [source]
- [00:00 CET] SNA militants mercenaries execute wounded SDF fighters inside a hospital in Manbij. [source]
Tactical Analysis
Today’s most important developments are expected to happen on the eastern front, as the Turkish backed Syrian National Army (SNA) launches an all-out offensive against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) positions on Manbij. There is a realistic probability that the Syrian National Army (SNA) manages to control the city at the expense of heavy loses, both on personnel and material. Meanwhile, it is likely that the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) remaining in the area retreat into Rojava to avoid behind cut-off by the encircling forces. Current patters of behavior of the Syrian National Army (SNA) indicate that it is likely we see more sectarian violence against civilians in Syrian enclaves falling under Turkish control.
09/12/2024
- [11:00 CET] Multiple media outlets report findings of mass graves inside the Sednaya Prison. Activist Mazen Hammadeh is confirmed to be among the dead [source] [source]
- [10:00 CET] Executive Director of the Syrian Network for Human Rights claims at least 100,000 disappeared civilians are currently considered as deceased. [source]
- [19:30 CET] Israeli media reports IDF may conduct further strikes inside of Syria to engage SAA naval assets anchored in the Port of Latakia [source]
- [17:00 CET] HTS announces a general amnesty process for SAA soldiers that served Assad under compulsory conscription contracts [source]
- [13:30 CET] Al-Jazzera reports that Mohammed Al-Bashir of the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) will be the head of the transitional government. [source]
- [13:00 CET] UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs called the different rebel armed factions to safeguard national unity and institutional stability. [source]
- [10:00 CET] Russian military advisors withdraw from Sarrin Air Base in Ayn al-Arab. Multiple reports suggest they are in route to Qamishli. [source]
- [06:00 CET] Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz directed its forces to establish a buffer zone inside the Syrian side of the border. [source]
- [02:00 CET] IDF officials confirms to the NYT journalist that Israel advanced beyond the Demilitarized Zone on the Syrian border [source]
Tactical Analysis
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) are almost certain to continue airstrikes on advanced weapons platforms abandoned by the Syrian Arab Army (SAA). They are also highly likely to advance further into the Syrian side of the border, as a buffer zone is ordered by Jerusalem. Hay’at Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) is highly likely to maintain the current status of political negotiations with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in order to secure the transitional government in Damascus.
The United States Central Command (CETCOM) is highly likely to keep supporting the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) operations against the Islamic State (ISIS) camps in the eastern desert. Furthermore, there is a realistic possibility that both the Islamic State (ISIS) and the Syrian National Army (SNA) stays as the current threats to the stabilization of the country.
08/12/2024
- [23:00 CET] White Helmets deploys teams to the Sednaya Prison to support and assist the liberation of detainees trapped in clandestine underground facilities. [source]
- [20:00 CET] U.S CETCOM conducts airstrikes with USAF B-52 bombers, F-15E Strike Eagle fighters and A-10 attack aircraft against ISIS leaders in central Syria [source]
- [19:00 CET] Major General Ali Mahmoud, Deputy Commander of SAA 4th Armoured Division is found dead on Damascus [source]
- [18:30 CET] Assad is in Moscow and has been granted asylum, according to sources cited by TASS and CNN media outlets. [source]
- [13:30 CET] Russian Government claims in a diplomatic statement that Bashar al-Assad left the country after an agreement with the Syrian Opposition. [source, source]
- [10:00 CET] Iran’s embassy in Damascus is being stormed by protesters. Assad statues are being destroyed across Syria. [source]
- [09:00 CET] Sednaya Prison liberated by opposition soldiers. Other detention centers for political prisoners are also taken over [source, source]
- [08:00 CET] Ilyushin II-76T transporting al-Assad disappears from radars. Sources quoted by Reuters say the plane is “highly likely” to have gone down in a crash. [source]
- [07:00 CET] Al-Assad regime is overthrow in Syria. Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi said it was ready to form a transitional government with the opposition coalition. [source]
Tactical Analysis
Hay’at Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), the Southern Operations Room (SOR) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (DSF) defeated the Syrian Army (SAA). Massive desertions are almost certain to happen within loyalist soldiers in the following hours. Russia and Iran are likely to use back-channels to the Syrian Opposition to negotiate the withdrawal of military advisors.
07/12/2024
- [17:30 CET] Credible reports of widespread desertion among SAA soldiers stationed in Damascus urban center and countryside. [source, source]
- [16:00 CET] Russia, Iran and Turkey have agreed to stop military operations in Syria after diplomatic meeting in Doha [source]
- [15:00 CET] SOR elements enter Darayya, a town four kilometers away from Damascus, without meeting SAA resistance. Additional reports suggest locals are joining the revolt. [source]
- [13:30 CET] SOR confirms all opposition factions are launching the final phase of encircling Damascus. [source]
- [13:00 CET] SOR offensive in the southwest is at 19 kilometers from the capital. SAA 220th Division withdrew from their headquarters in Saasaa prison. [source]
- [12:00 CET] SOR rebels take control of the town of Kanaker in the Damascus countryside. SAA troops expelled from the town. [source]
- [11:00 CET] SAA columns withdraw from the enclave of Palmyra in eastern Syria. FSA rebels advance into city. [source, source]
- [09:00 CET] SDF forces liberate suspected political prisoners from Deir Ezzor central prison after SAA troops retreat from the city. [source]
Tactical Analysis
Bashar al-Assad’s completely lost control of four provincial capitals: Hama, Raqqa, Deir Ezzor, and Hasakah. Damascus is being encircled from three different fronts: Hay’at Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) pushing south from Homs and Aleppo, the Southern Operations Room (SOR) advancing north from Daraa and the Syrian Democratic Forces (DSF) crossing the desert from Palmira and Deir Ezzor.
Syrian rebels are highly likely to reach Damascus in this weekend. Russian and Iranian advisors to al-Assad are likely to evacuate as the windows for viable extractions close. Meanwhile, the siege of Homs continue as Hay’at Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) HTS and the Syrian Army (SAA) battle for the city.
06/12/2024
- [23:30 CET] HTS announces their militants reached Homs outer perimeter from the north. SAA forces in Tartus and Latakia are at risk of being cut off by HTS in the west of the country. [source]
- [22:00 CET] Daraa falls to the rebel Southern Operations Room coalition after the withdrawal of Al-Assad loyalists. Border crossings with Jordan were also captured by Daraa rebels [source, source]
- [18:00 CET] Druze rebels take control of Suwayda. The Baath Party and the Central Prison are under control of opposition aligned militias. [source]
- [17:30 CET] Rebels from the Southern Operation Room overran the Syrian Army 52nd Brigade in Al-Harak. Bigger pockets of resistance are opening in Daraa eastern countryside. [source]
- [15:00 CET] Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) breach Deir Ezzor while the Syrian Army (SAA) retreats from the city’s airport. [source, source]
- [14:30 CET] AFP news cable report SAA withdraw in Homs. Russian airplanes bomb Al-Rastan Bridge to delay HTS advance into the city. [source, source]
- [12:00 CET] Multiple unconfirmed reports of SAA retreat from Homs. HTS is six kilometers away from the city limits on the north side. [source, source]
- [10:00 CET] Homs northern countryside is considered dominated by Jolani troops. Villages taken include Al-Majd, Deir Foul, Asila and Al-Hashimiya [source]
- [08:00 CET] HTS is eight kilometers away from SAA positions in Homs. Ter Maela and Talbiseh, two towns north of the city, are under rebel control. [source, source]
- [00:00 CET] ISIS claims in a statement it took control of areas southeast of Homs after clashes with the SAA. SDF media chief confirms offensive against ISIS in Deir Ezzor [source, source]
Tactical Analysis
Hay’at Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) is highly likely to reach and take the city of Homs during this weekend, as the Syrian Army (SAA) failed to establish a defensive line along the Orontes river and lost over 40 kilometers in just 24 hours. Currently, we see no credible indications of the Syrian Army (SAA) being able to hold the line, neither in the northern front to the Hay’at Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) militias or in the eastern front to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) columns. There is also a realistic probability of a third front forming in the south of the country, as opposition militias rise in the streets of Daraa.
