On 24 January, Russia terminated a 12 year old cross border cooperation agreement with Finland. Relations between Finland and Russia have declined in the past few months. On 30 November 2023, Finland shutdown their border crossings with Russia and won’t be reopened until 11 February 2024. Finland has since accused Russia of instigating a migrant border crisis in December with Estonia, citing an increase in directed asylum seekers to the country. Finland meanwhile is looking to enforce their security capabilities to counter what is perceived as an increase in Russian hybrid activities. 

Key Judgement 1: Finland will likely reinforce their security and intelligence service to counter Russian espionage over the next 12 months. 

Key Judgement 2: It is highly likely that Finland will invest in Cyber security to counter Russian espionage and hybrid activities over the next 12 months

Key Judgement 3: Finland is highly likely to increase their border security over the next 12 months due to national security concerns with Russia