Executive Summary

Mexico-United States cooperation in counterdrug operations has in recent months increased, demonstrating Mexico City’s willingness to collaborate and reflecting Washington’s pressure on the Sheinbaum government to more aggressively tackle the issue. Recent social media statements highlight the joint efforts between the parties in counterdrug operations, advancing the national interests of both administrations. While counternarcotics cooperation between the two countries is not rare, both sides are now taking unprecedented actions, including new legislation, covert drone operations, and extraditions. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has adopted a hard-line approach. In fact, she increased measures for the dismantling of clandestine laboratories in an attempt to disrupt cartels’ operations. 

Image Sourced From: U.S. Immigration and Customs, José Méndez

Key Judgements

KJ-1. Longstanding US-Mexico counterdrug operations cooperation has advanced to a new level, and we do not see any indications that the intensified collaboration, including the dismantling of cartel operations, will wane over the next year. 

1. On 14 May 2025, ICE reported in their X account the collaboration between their Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) unit and several bodies of the Government of Mexico, including the Secretaria de la Defensa Nacional, in the dismantling of drug production labs in the Sinaloa State. [source]
2. According to the US’s March 2025 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, mutual national interests are driving an increase in joint US-Mexico counterdrug measures. [source]
3. Mexican President Sheinbaum has requested U.S. assistance in combating cartel operations as drug violence has risen. [source]
4. Additionally, signs of military cooperation between the two countries have increased. For example, they agreed on coordinated border patrols, information sharing, and immigration enforcement. [source]

KJ-2. Novel approaches and unprecedented actions by Washington and Mexico City so far may portend a period of even further heightened counterdrug operations in the coming months.

1. Trump’s executive order designating cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organisations allows US agencies to now act more freely against these groups. Additionally, the designation does not have a territorial limitation. This implies that the United States can impose sanctions on, investigate, or prosecute any actor allegedly involved with the cartels. [source]
2. Recently, first ever charges in the United States were conducted for narco-terrorism against leaders of the Sinaloa Cartel. Similarly, charges for providing support to the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación demonstrate the commitment of the Trump administration in their treatment of cartels as terrorist organisations. [source] [source]
3. CIA covert drone flights have increased their operations in an attempt to hunt for fentanyl labs. Reportedly, CIA officers in Mexico share the information collected by the drones with Mexican officials. [source]
4. The United States has recently increased its pressure against Mexican financial and banking organisations through discussions relating to money laundering controls and an increase in collaboration to strengthen protective measures. [source]
5. In February 2025, following US pressure, 29 captured drug lords were extradited to the United States. This is considered an unprecedented move by Mexican officials. [source]

KJ-3. President Claudia Sheinbaum began embracing a hardline stance against the cartels even before President Trump’s inauguration, and she will likely continue aggressively cooperating with the U.S. in counterdrug operations to dismantle in-country drug production.

1. In October 2024, the new Sheinbaum administration issued the National Public Security Strategy for 2024-2030. This indicates her intention to strengthen intelligence collection and law enforcement investigations to dismantle criminal networks. [source]
2. In December 2024, under President Sheinbaum, Mexican soldiers and marines made the biggest seizure of fentanyl in Mexico’s history. [source]
3. By April 2025, Mexico had dismantled over 750 clandestine drug production laboratories. Furthermore, they seized over 140 tons of narcotics, arresting thousands of individuals. [source]

Statement on Analysis

We are confident in the analysis that both Mexico and the United States will increase collaboration in counterdrug operations. This is supported by the security strategies of both countries, and their actions during the first months of the administrations. Relevantly, the assessment relies on the assumption that governmental policies will continue to evolve in the same manner through both presidencies. Furthermore, key gaps that might impact the assessment include national reporting of drug production and consumption trends in Mexico, as well as further developments in US pressure to utilise their troops on Mexican territory.  Shifts in public support for the counterdrug measures, domestic political changes on either side, or any deterioration of the diplomatic relationship between the two countries might alter this assessment. 

Intelligence Cut-off Date: 19 May 2025