On 7 July, Omar Alieu Touray claimed that the West African region faced “disintegration” as the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) announced their exit from ECOWAS. On 6 July, AES’ junta chiefs met in Niamey to announce the establishment of the Confederation of Sahel States, a new West African bloc independent of ECOWAS. The Confederation aims to create a unified security structure, a single currency and freedom of movement across the bloc’s member states. 

Since July 2023, ECOWAS has escalated efforts to return civilian rule to the Sahel’s military junta states. In August 2023, ECOWAS even threatened to militarily intervene in Niger but eventually backed down. In 2024, ECOWAS had adopted a more reconciliatory stance towards AES members, for example sanctions were lifted on Niger in February. Nonetheless, AES members perceive ECOWAS to be acting in Western interests and have instead favoured strengthening ties with Russia and other anti-Western states. AES will not however officially exit ECOWAS for another 12 months having now entered a legal transition phase. Therefore the next 12 months represent a period in which AES and ECOWAS must decide their future relationship and how they are going to weather the economic and security repercussions of their fallout.

Key Judgement 1. It is highly likely the cessation of intelligence sharing in the Sahel region will significantly increase the likelihood of cross-border terror activity in littoral West Africa.

Key Judgement 2. It is likely ECOWAS will abandon reconciliation with AES and instead focus on stabilising the economic bloc.

Key Judgement 3. It is highly likely AES will prioritise boosting relations with Russia, China, Iran and Turkey to mitigate the adverse economic and security effects of exiting ECOWAS.