Since the war began in April 2023, more than 10 million Sudanese have been displaced, and half of Sudan’s population now faces a hunger crisis. The SAF controls most of the east and north, and the RSF controls most of the west and most of the Capital, Khartoum. Recently, fighting has begun to intensify in North Darfur, focused around El Fasher. Both the RSF and SAF are receiving military aid or backing from different countries, including Russia, Egypt, Chad, and the UAE. Their involvement, and the instability of regional neighbours, have raised concerns over the spread of this conflict. However, the US has invited the SAF and RSF to mediate ceasefire talks in Switzerland on August 14, providing some hope for an easing of the conflict.

Key Judgment 1. It is likely that the RSF will now focus its military efforts, and soon launch an intensive attack to capture North Darfur’s capital, El Fasher.

Key Judgment 2. It is highly likely that there will be increasing involvement of ethnic militias in the battle for El Fasher, as fighting escalates and spreads.

Key Judgment 3. It is likely that despite upcoming ceasefire talks, increasing foreign involvement will lengthen and further bloody the conflict.