Sunday presidential elections in Venezuela could be the beginning of a transition from an authoritarian regime into a democratic government. Most pollsters (Source) and experts (Source) consider the opposition candidate as the winner, but the real challenge lies in the realistic possibility that the socialist regime will recognize the outcome of the elections in exchange for political guarantees.

Nicolás Maduro current and former strategic allies have already said that they are willing to support a transition (Source). Outside those lines is the threat of electoral manipulation and voter suppression. International observers and foreign journalists have documented worrying precedents in previous elections in both situations. (Source) (Source).

Key Judgements

Key Judgment 1. It is highly likely that opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzales outnumber Nicolás Maduro in the elections. Maria Corina’s support has been crucial in rallying the divided opposition into a united coalition.

Key Judgment 2. There is a realistic probability that the regime’s internal disputes could force it to negotiate a political transition.

Key Judgment 3. It is almost certain that the Maduro regime will continue to exploit its control of government institutions to engage in electoral manipulation, with a realistic probability of using violence to sabotage the election and consolidate its position.