Eritrea is in the Horn of Africa along the Red Sea. Since its independence in 1993, Eritrea conflicted relations with its neighbours, particularly with Ethiopia. Despite a brief alliance in their fight against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Eritrea sees Ethiopia as a threat to its national security. Regional border disputes and Ethiopia’s increased ambitions for Red Sea access further impair bilateral relations. In the Sudanese Civil War, Eritrea’s use of hybrid warfare methods was aimed at supporting the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) (source, source, source).

Utilizing its extensive security apparatus, Eritrea uses hybrid warfare methods to directly intervene in neighbouring conflicts, exerting influence on its rivals.

Key Judgment 1. It is highly likely that Eritrea’s use of hybrid warfare methods adds to regional instability in Ethiopia.

Key Judgment 2. It is highly likely that Eritrea leverages its geographic location and its diaspora to secure diplomatic, military, and economic support.

Key Judgment 3. It is likely that Eritrea counters its adversaries in Sudan and Ethiopia through hybrid warfare methods.