Russian expansion into West Africa is likely to continue over the next five years. Russia seeks to gain political support for international objectives in global governance bodies and to extract resources for its military goals and domestic needs. That said, economic challenges and the ongoing war with Ukraine will likely limit the pace of expansion.

We assess it is likely Russian forces will be active in Togo, Nigeria, Niger, Sierra Leone, Ghana and Mali by 2030. Russia’s efforts in the region cost little. Its efforts in West Africa also incorporate hybrid warfare, and aim to undermine the rules-based international order by currying political support in the global south. Significant decreases in foreign aid by both Europe and the U.S. present an opportunity for both Russia and China to expand into the region. By 2050, the African continent is projected to have a quarter of the world’s population and over $16 trillion in purchasing power.

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