Executive Summary

The security of the global biosecurity environment is under pressure from the rapid expansion of high-hazard pathogen research, uneven safety governance, and the integration of advanced technologies that outpace oversight systems. The exponential growth of Biosafety Level 4 laboratories to sixty globally, particularly since the COVID-19 pandemic, has not been matched by corresponding improvements in biosafety standards. This imbalance is reminiscent of the oversight gaps that followed previous outbreaks, such as influenza H1N1 in 2009, increasing the likelihood of both accidental release and deliberate misuse of high-risk pathogens.

Meanwhile, the rapid integration of AI-enabled tools into biological research is lowering the barriers to developing and weaponising biological agents, expanding the potential pool of capable actors while exposing critical weaknesses in current screening mechanisms. This technological acceleration outpaces the effectiveness of current biosecurity screening and oversight mechanisms.

Also, the convergence of cyber and biological systems has likely created new vulnerabilities across critical infrastructure. Cyberattacks targeting the healthcare, food and research sectors demonstrate that existing biosecurity frameworks are not capable of mitigating against cyberattacks.

Finally, globalisation, antimicrobial resistance, and increased interactions between humans and wild animals are intensifying the frequency and impact of infectious disease outbreaks and accelerating zoonotic spillover. Scientific innovation and global interconnectedness are outpacing global biosafety, oversight and preparedness mechanisms, resulting in systemic vulnerabilities across the biosecurity landscape.

Key Judgements

KJ-1. The exponential increase in the number of Biosafety Level 4 laboratories globally, alongside the increase in high-hazard pathogen research since the outbreak of COVID-19, is likely outpacing international biosafety and biosecurity standards, increasing the chances of accidental release or deliberate misuse.

1. In the last three decades, the number of Biosafety Level 4 facilities has grown to sixty worldwide; 75% of these facilities are located in urban cities. [source]
2. According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative’s Global Health Security Index, only 25% of countries that have Biosafety Level 4 facilities score highly on the best practice indicators for biosafety and security. [source]
3. There has been an increase globally in the number of laboratories that handle the highest-hazard pathogens since the outbreak of COVID-19. [source]
4. A 2025 report by the Hoover Institution’s Bio-Strategies and Leadership initiative warns that biosecurity risks are increasing as advances in biotech and artificial intelligence (AI) make biological threats “more numerous, frequent and consequential.” The report requests new governance mechanisms, such as the sustaining Biological Intelligence (BIOINT) program and multilateral oversight of research involving pandemic-potential pathogens, to prevent a growing mismatch between technological innovation and global safety standards. [source]

KJ-2. The rapid integration of AI-enabled tools into biological research is lowering the barriers to developing and weaponising biological agents, a trend that—if left unchecked—is likely to outpace the effectiveness of current biosecurity screening and oversight mechanisms.

1. Researchers at the Centre for Long-Term Resilience identified the possibility for AI-enabled Biological tools and Large Language Models for the potential development of biological weapons by malicious actors through the lowering of cost to existing barriers, increasing the number of capable actors or potentially increasing the ceiling for harmful possibilities. [source]
2. October 3rd 2025, Microsoft Bioengineer, Bruce Wittman, used AI tools to create digital blueprints for proteins that could mimic deadly poisons and toxins such as ricin, botulinum and Shiga. [source]
3. Bruce Wittman, in collaboration with biosecurity experts, identified a vulnerability within the screening software that flags sequences of restricted materials that can be evaded by using AI-redesigned sequences; one tool missed more than 75% of potential toxins. [source]

KJ-3. Biosecurity protocols in many, if not most, facilities are not likely designed to anticipate or manage cyberattacks against infrastructure that could affect biohazard containment.

1. In 2021, hackers manipulated the level of chemicals in a water treatment facility in Florida and California, demonstrating how cyberattacks can directly pose a threat to public health. [source]
2. Cyberattacks on the agricultural industry increased by 607% from 2019 to 2020, resulting in supply chain disruptions and incidents of ransomware. In 2021, the world’s largest meat processing company, JBS, paid $11 million in ransom following an attack that shut down plants. [source] [source]
3. Cyberattacks against the healthcare industry account for almost a quarter of all digital intrusions, with each breach averaging $5 million. [source]
4. During the height of COVID-19, Russian-linked cyber-operations targeted critical healthcare supply chains: in November 2020, Miltenyi Biotec, while sequencing COVID samples, suffered a two-week outage. In that same month, Americold, the largest cold storage operation in the US, suffered a critical cyberattack while in discussion to provide storage for the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines. [source]
5. Cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, healthcare and other essential services are increasing the loss of life as a result. Ransomware affecting the healthcare industry is the leading cause of cyber-related deaths, attacks increasing by 300% from 2015 to 2025. [source]

KJ-4. Globalisation, antimicrobial resistance, and increased interactions between humans and animals are likely intensifying the frequency, spread and impact of infectious diseases, driving zoonotic spillover, and overwhelming existing biosecurity systems. 

1. 61% of infectious diseases in humans originate from animals. The WHO’s Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens concluded that the COVID-19 disease likely originated from a zoonotic spillover  “either directly from bats or through an intermediate host.”  [source] [source]
2. SARS, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, emerged in 2002 in China and spread to 28 other countries, which has been linked to a Zoonotic origin. Similarly, Monkeypox, Mpox, is a zoonotic infection that occurs mostly in West and Central Africa. Recently, there have been 15 cases of Mpox in the UK as of July 31st 2025. The recurrence of zoonotic spillovers demonstrates the persistent risk under globalisation despite increased preparedness and oversight.[source] [source]
3. 1.3 million people die worldwide annually due to antimicrobial-resistant (AMR) bacteria, including 7,600 in the UK. The estimated cost to the NHS is £95 million annually. In 2019, more than 2.8 million cases of AMR occurred in the US, killing 38,000 people. [source] [source]
4. Global trade and migration increase the transmission of AMRs and zoonotic pathogens.   A forecast estimates that by 2050, the number of AMR-related deaths annually could reach 1.9 million attributable deaths and 8.2 million associated deaths globally.  [source] [source]

Statement on Analysis

Grey Dynamics assesses with a high confidence level that the global biosecurity environment faces systemic vulnerabilities relating to the growth of BSL-4 research, uneven biosafety standards, and accelerating AI and cyber-biological integration. This analysis is supported by multiple open-source, peer-reviewed and policy sources, though limited transparency in laboratory oversight and incomplete reporting on dual-use research constrain confidence. Key assumptions include continued technological acceleration and limited regulatory reform. Variables that could alter our judgments include international biosafety and biosecurity frameworks or AI safety breakthroughs. In the near-term future, absent coordinated governance reforms, systemic vulnerabilities in biosafety and cyber-biosecurity are likely to deepen, heightening the probability of a biological incident.

Intelligence Cut-Off Date: October 26, 2025