Indonesia is navigating a transformative era in its defence and foreign policy sectors, with significant implications for regional stability and power dynamics. In the face of geopolitical competition and hybrid threats, Indonesia is trying to foster a self-reliant defence industry, assert its influence within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and maintain a foreign policy that eschews alignment with major power blocs. This strategy is bolstered by a surge in defense spending and the pursuit of strategic military co-development partnerships. Simultaneously, Indonesia is striking a delicate balance between engaging with global superpowers and maintaining its independent foreign policy doctrine. These developments signal Jakarta’s intent to reinforce its sovereignty and regional leadership amidst the complex interplay of global power competition.

Key Judgement 1. It is highly likely Indonesia’s defence industry will become more independent in the next 5-10 years. 

Key Judgement 2. Indonesia is likely to assert a more influential role in ASEAN regional security affairs in the next 5-10 years. 

Key Judgement 3. Indonesia will likely maintain a balanced foreign policy stance, avoiding alignment with major power blocs while seeking diversified military partnerships.