Indonesia’s Secret Insurgency Forecast

The Indonesian military consistently faces allegations of human rights abuses and violence in Western New Guinea (Papua). The Free Papua Movement has conducted a low-intensity guerrilla conflict against the Indonesian state since Dutch authorities ceded the territory to Indonesia in 1962. The group conducts kidnappings and targets of civilians to force the Indonesian government to negotiate independence. Consequently, the Indonesian state is pursuing military victory against the Free Papua Movement. With neither party willing to back down, violence will continue to escalate in the near term.  

Key Judgement 1. The Free Papua Movement will likely increase operations against the Indonesian state in the next 12 months.

Key Judgement 2. It is highly likely that the Indonesian security forces will deploy more military forces to the province instead of negotiating with pro-independence groups.

Key Judgement 3. The Free Papua Movement will likely target civilians to pressure the Indonesian government into independence negotiations.

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