Iran has a history of cyber warfare operations and meddling in the US presidential election process. The first cyber-enabled interference operations were seen by the public in the 2016 US presidential election cycle. Since that time Iran played a more active role in election interference activities. The goals of influence operations can include spreading disinformation, stoking conflict over contentious debate topics, and even encouraging violence. The 2024 US presidential election cycle faces new challenges with adversaries employing new tools such as generative AI to make content harder to detect by average citizens, and networks of websites disguised as news organizations putting out divisive content.

Key Judgment 1. Iran will likely continue to target high-level political figures from both the Republican and Democrat political parties.

Key Judgment 2. Iranian Cyber influence operations are likely to increase earlier in the election cycle than in previous elections.

Key Judgment 3. As the 2024 US presidential election cycle progresses, Iranian cyber influence operations will likely grow in volume and sophistication.