Venezuela is currently facing increasing pressure from the United States, as the White House amasses military resources and conducts kinetic strikes in the Caribbean. Donald Trump has framed the ongoing operation as a counternarcotics deployment, but the large-scale buildup of combat assets in Puerto Rico and Trinidad and Tobago suggests the scope of the operation has a realistic possibility of expanding from targeting smuggling vessels in the Caribbean to striking ground objectives in Venezuela.

Compounding these indicators is also the confirmed presence of United States special forces support assets (Ocean Trader / Night Stalkers) in the theatre of operations. Washington also authorised Langley to conduct covert action in Venezuela through a presidential finding reported on October through credible media outlets. Grey Dynamics’ real-time monitoring and analysis of the situation aims to deliver continuous updates and verified intelligence on the ongoing flashpoint.

Area of Interest: Republic of Venezuela, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Southern Caribbean.

Start Date: 04 November 2025

Scope of Analysis: Publicly Available Information (PAI) and Commercially Available Information (CAI) showing disposition and movement of the Venezuelan Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB) and the United States Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) in the actual theatre, as well as changing circumstances that could alter their capabilities or suggest intent. Human Intelligence (HUMINT) emanating from established sources and cooperative contacts inside the country will be exploited to reinforce or challenge the assumptions of our daily analyses, as well to focus our collection efforts on certain locations of interest.

09 November 2025

The United States is currently in a position to enable intelligence collection operations or covert action activities in the Southern Caribbean and Northern Venezuela through special mission units if it chooses to do so.

• [15:00 CET] Multiple Latin American analysts reported yesterday that an indeterminate number of Combatant Craft Assault patrol boats were likely to be aboard the Ocean Trader [source]
• [13:00 CET] Further examination of European Union Satellite Agency public data displays an Arleigh Burke-Class Destroyer escorting the Ocean Trader in the Southern Caribbean  [source]
• [00:00 CET] United States special operations forces mothership Ocean Trader was spotted yesterday by the European Union Satellite Agency near Venezuela, west of Granada. [source]

08 November 2025

The United States is expanding and enhancing its offensive capabilities by deploying aerial assets in Central America. Based on the available information, we assess that these airframes are likely to target and engage smuggling vessels in the Caribbean.

• [12:00 CET] The Latin American Aviation Historical Society confirmed yesterday through photographic evidence the presence of an AC-130J Ghostrider in El Salvador’s Comalapa Air Base [source]
• [09:00 CET] Analysis of air traffic control and flight tracking data published on November revealed the Pentagon is operating heavy gunships and surveillance planes out of El Salvador since October [source]
• [00:00 CET] United States defence officials cited by War Zone media claimed the Trump Administration is currently surveying locations to deploy additional armed assets to the Caribbean. [source]

07 November 2025

Caracas is unlikely to escalate Washington’s increasing approaches to national airspace, as recent incursions were deconflicted through ground orders in military bases. Operations regarding lethal strikes in the Caribbean are almost certain to continue.

• [16:00 CET] The Pentagon confirmed yesterday at midnight that another vessel suspected to be running narcotics was targeted and destroyed in the Caribbean along with its three occupants [source]
• [11:00 CET] According to a local aviation expert, Libertador Air Force Base command issued a ground order to military airframes as the United States Air Force presence was detected on the coastline [source]
• [06:00 CET] Two Boeing B-52 Stratofortress from the United States Air Force made another probing manoeuvre near Venezuela during last night, moving parallel to the coastline from Falcon to Miranda [source]

06 November 2025

Nicolás Maduro is conveying police officers from special teams and regular patrols into military duties and counterintelligence efforts. We do not see any signs that this trend will abate under the current circumstances of the military buildup.

• [16:00 CET] The Venezuelan Police assigned today an indeterminate number of its special operators to military duties, including joint sentry patrols, in the Barlovento – Miranda coastal region. [source]
• [11:30 CET] Official statements from the Venezuelan Police confirm ongoing operations of uniformed officers in Caracas to monitor and account foreign nationals visiting the country. [source]

05 November 2025

The United States does not display any indications that it will cease its ongoing pattern of kinetic strikes in the Southern Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific. Washington is also likely to continue probing Caracas’ long-range detection systems.

• [19:00 CET] Flight Radar data collected by open source military analysts show a United States Boeing Stratotanker flying 160 kilometres away from La Orchila Island in the Southern Caribbean [source]
• [09:00 CET] According to information reported by the Pentagon, the United States have launched 16 kinetic strikes and killed 67 targeted individuals in the Southern Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific as of today. [source] 
• [02:00 CET] United States Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced the execution of another lethal kinetic strike against a suspected vessel involved in narcotics smuggling. [source]

04 November 2025

Roosevelt Roads is likely to remain as a staging point for the United States military forces in the Caribbean, as current indicators suggest the Pentagon is preparing for sustained operations involving air and sea assets.

• [21:00 CET] Satellogic and SkyfiApp satellite imagery of the Roosevelt Roads Naval Station displays eight F-35 Lightning II fighters and two C-17 Globemaster transports airlifters currently stationed in Puerto Rico [source]
• [17:00 CET] Research from Reuters confirms the United States is upgrading Roosevelt Roads’ operational capabilities and building ammunition storage facilities at civilian airports in the Virgin Islands [source]
• [13:00 CET] USS Gerald Ford (CVN-78) aircraft carrier and USS Bainbridge (DDG-96) missile destroyer passed through the Strait of Gibraltar earlier this morning, en route to the Southern Caribbean. [source]