Israel-Turkey relations are in shambles due to the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. Threatening statements and political moves under the Erdoğan and Netanyahu administrations have jeopardised their future diplomatic partnership. Prior to 7 October, the two Middle Eastern nations maintained a constant relationship.

Together with the US, Turkish and Israeli armed forces took part in joint military operations and economic partnerships. Israel-Turkey relations have faced setbacks. In 2010, a Turkish vessel carrying humanitarian aid Mavi Marmara was en route to Gaza when it was boarded by the Israeli Navy, resulting in the deaths of eight Turkish nationals. However, the magnitude of the Israel-Hamas conflict strains Israel-Turkey relations to the breaking point in the near term.

Key Judgement 1. In the next 6 months, it is highly unlikely that Israel and Turkey will achieve any reconciliation. 

Key Judgement 2. Turkey will likely refuse to condemn Hamas for its attacks against Israel in the next 6 months.

Key Judgement 3. Turkish-Israeli economic relations will likely stall but remain positive overall within the next 6 months.