The terrorist attack on the 7 October 2023 left a deep wound in Israeli society and the security apparatus. After the murder of more than 1’200 soldiers and civilians, Israel launched a military operation against the Gaza strip, aimed at neutralizing Hamas. Wanting to punish those responsible, Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to kill Hamas leaders wherever they might be (source).
During the night of 31 July 2024 , under unclear circumstances, an explosive device detonated in Tehran, in the hotel room where Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was staying. Haniyeh was a prominent figure in Palestinian politics and was deeply involved in the negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza.
Key Judgment 1. It is highly likely that the assassination of the leader of Hamas will provoke a further escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran-backed militias.
Key Judgment 2. There is a realistic probability that the strike will complicate reaching a deal to end the conflict in Gaza.
Key Judgment 3. It is highly likely that Israel will continue conducting targeted strikes against top leaders to increase its political and military leverage.
