Executive Summary

Japan is one of the largest bilateral supporters of Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, but we assess that Tokyo’s assistance is unlikely to shift battlefield dynamics and is insufficient to counterbalance any potential withdrawal of US support. 

Since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine in 2022, Japan has provided extensive financial and humanitarian, and limited security assistance. It has also strengthened security ties with NATO member states among rising tensions with China and Russia. Japan’s constitution limits the country to the provision of non-lethal aid.

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