Japan-China relations have seen a marked decrease, which has been characterised by the detention of Japanese citizens working in China on espionage charges. Simultaneously, the Japanese Self-Defence Forces (SDFs) and the Ministry Of Defence (MOD) have announced that they are increasingly intercepting Chinese drones and ships which enter near to or within its territory. Likewise, Japan has been the victim of an increasing amount of cyberattacks from actors who Japan alleges, are based within Chinese territory. It is therefore likely that Japanese and Chinese relations will continue to deteriorate as these simultaneous situations play out.

Key Judgment 1. It is highly likely that espionage incidents between Japan & China will decrease relations between the two countries

Key Judgment 2. It is highly likely that Japan will increasingly suffer cyberattacks from actors primarily based out of China in order to cause disruption 

Key Judgment 3. It is highly likely that Japan will increasingly operate its airforce and navy in order to deter further activities of the Chinese military in the region