The Kenyan mission in Haiti is going into its fifth month of operational deployment. It has more challenges than accomplishments in their peacekeeping assignment. The Multinational Security Support committed hundreds of police officers to the metropolitan neighbors of Port-au-Prince to restore order in the areas sieged by armed gangs. Nonetheless, the mission is not going according to the expectations of the international community or the national government.
Gangs have adopted different tactics to circumvent Kenya presence in Haiti and retain eighty percent of their controlled territories. Among the tactics are the withdrawal from critical strongholds in favor of remote neighborhoods, there are also reports of hit-and-run attacks on police. Kenyan Police is not only facing a criminal insurgence, but the underfunding of the mission in the United Nations and unreliable allies in the Haitian Government.
Key Judgement 1. The Kenyan security forces have secured critical infrastructure in Haiti, but it is unlikely they will restore order in remote zones controlled by criminals organizations.
Key Judgement 2. There is a realistic probability that the main gangs will reconfigure their alliances to present as a united group against the international peacekeepers.
Key Judgement 3. There is a realistic probability that funding issues and operational challenges will negatively impact Kenya’s security mission in Haiti.
