Executive Summary

Aleksandr Lukashenko’s re-election to a seventh term as the President of Belarus in January 2025 will deepen that nation’s integration with Russia. Therefore, it will increase security risks for Ukraine and weakening the EU’s influence. Belarus’ recent history is marked by Lukashenko’s steady consolidation of power. His rule has been characterised by suppressing dissent and gradual alignment with Russia. Notably, the 2020 presidential election led to mass protests, which Lukashenko silenced with Russia’s support.

In March 2025, after Lukashenko’s re-election, he and Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed their partnership. Additionally, they declared their intention to expand military, social, and economic cooperation. This has deep implications for regional security, particularly for Ukraine. In fact, Belarus hosts Russian troops and weapons, including nuclear arms, and provides support to the country. Finally, the EU, despite increased sanctions and support for the opposition, struggles to affect Lukashenko’s actions, hindered by internal divisions and Russia’s influence. 

Images Sourced From: Ukraine Interior Ministry Press Service, Paasikivi, The Presidential Press and Information Office