Executive Summary

The widespread distribution of modern Man-Portable Air Defence Systems (MANPADS) across Ukraine has outpaced mechanisms for effective end-user control and tracking. As a result, poorly secured MANPADS within the Ukrainian theater represent an opportunity for acquisition and proliferation by non-state groups looking to advance their interests across other conflicts. 

Although there have not been any confirmed instances, uncontrolled proliferation of modern MANPADS projecting from Ukraine remains a possible scenario, and almost certainly represents an opportunity for financial gain and influence-building across other global conflicts. 

The unregulated distribution of these systems will significantly raise the threat to air operations, especially in the global south, where malign actors seek to prop up conflict in regions where aircraft lack effective defensive countermeasures. The potential for terrorist groups to acquire MANPADS is a continuing concern for the commercial aviation industry.

Images Sourced From: Militarnyi

Key Judgements

KJ-1. It is highly likely that weapon mismanagement in Ukraine has created an environment of opportunity for bad actors through compromised accountability and control.

1. As of May 2025, Ukrainian and Russian forces have widely deployed MANPADS throughout Ukraine. While precise figures are unavailable, conservative estimates suggest that approximately 10,000 units have been fielded. [source, source]
2. Reports as early as late 2022 documented a lack of end-user monitoring. Available reporting provides no indication that any party has addressed this issue. [source] 
3. Within the complex conditions of Ukraine’s frontline, weapons are frequently transferred informally between units, lost amid the disorder of combat, and subsequently acquired by third-party groups. [source, source]
4. Ukrainian authorities recently dismantled a significant illicit arms trafficking network, the scale of which suggests that organised criminal and non-state actors appear to have diverted considerable quantities of military-grade weaponry. [source]

KJ-2. MANPAD Systems deployed in Ukraine are significantly more capable than those found in African conflicts, almost certainly undermining current defensive capabilities.

1. Among the MANPADS present in Ukraine, the American FIM-92 STINGER and Russian RS-SA-18 GROUSE were the most prevalent. This is consistent with international commitments to Ukraine’s defence, and current Russian military doctrine. [source]
2. Both of these systems represent multi-generational leaps above those common within North and Central Africa. FIM-92 (Generation 4) and RS-SA-18 (Generation 3) both possess specific seeker and flight profile logics capable of defeating basic infrared countermeasures (IRCM). [source, source] 
3. No local aircraft operating throughout North and Central Africa possess the necessary countermeasures to defeat MANPADS above Generation 1. [source, source] 

KJ-3. Actors operating across Ukraine and Africa have almost certainly demonstrated intent to transfer high-value MANPAD systems in pursuit of strategic objectives.

1. There is currently no verified evidence confirming that weapons sourced from Ukraine have been trafficked into Africa. 
2. In May 2023, imagery of a Rapid Support Forces soldier equipped with an RS-SA-18 confirmed the presence of modern MANPADS in Africa. This weapon was reportedly provided by the Russian paramilitary group Wagner. [source]
3. In March 2024, an individual was prosecuted with conspiring to export weapons, including FIM-92s, to opposition groups aiming to overthrow South Sudan’s government. [source] 
4. A video posted to X.com on 24 December 2025 shows a member of the Sudanese Armed Forces carrying a weapon that possesses physical attributes consistent with an Austeyr F88 rifle. Low production and limited export of this weapon makes it extremely rare on the black market. It is a possible that this weapon formed part of Australia’s undisclosed lethal aid package provided to Ukraine, and has reached Sudan via black market channels. [source] 

Statement on Analysis

We have high confidence in the accuracy of reporting and analysis regarding the mismanagement of MANPADS in Ukraine. Further detailed analysis and wargaming focused on identifying actors and mechanisms leveraging the Russo-Ukrainian conflict for financial gain would significantly enhance the development of robust indicators and warnings.

We assess with high confidence that actors across both Ukraine and African conflict zones, including Wagner Group elements, possess a clear intent to exploit opportunities for gain across these interconnected battlespaces, deliberately deriving operational effects in one theater by leveraging resources and influence from the other. Additionally, there is strong confidence that armed groups engaged in African conflicts are actively pursuing the acquisition of advanced weapons systems to bolster their capabilities. 

Intelligence Cut-off Date: 15 June 2025