Morocco and Ethiopia signed a military partnership agreement (source) in August 2024. This is significant progress in the relationship between these countries, having wider security implications for both Western Africa and the Horn of Africa. The full details of the agreement are yet unknown. However, they are likely to include joint exercises, intelligence sharing, and counter-terrorism efforts. This partnership arises amid deteriorating relations between Morocco and Algeria over the Polisario Front and Morocco’s control of Western Sahara. Similarly, Ethiopia’s relationships with Egypt remain strained over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and a recent defence agreement between Egypt and Somalia, which Ethiopia perceives as a threat (source).

Key Judgment 1. The Morocco-Ethiopia military partnership is likely to enhance Ethiopia’s military and political stance in the Horn of Africa.

Key Judgment 2. The Morocco-Ethiopia military partnership is likely to strengthen Morocco’s position against the Polisario Front and Algeria.

Key Judgment 3. The Morocco-Ethiopia military partnership will likely enhance counterterrorism and counterinsurgency collaboration.