The Myanmar military junta seized control in 2021 and engaged in a violent civil war with rebel militia groups ever since. The militia groups had success employing commercial drones modified to carry munitions. They also used them for surveillance and reconnaissance of military forces and their locations. Reportedly the militia groups dropped over 25,000 bombs on junta military facilities between October and November of 2023 (source). In response, the Myanmar military started building its own drone fleet by procuring thousands of Chinese drones and additionally modifying them to carry munitions into combat.

Key Judgment 1. Myanmar’s military junta is likely to continue to increase the procurement and use of drones due to the low cost of Chinese drone technology compared to traditional aircraft platforms.

Key Judgment 2. The number of casualties and extent of damage will likely increase as the military junta procures more sophisticated drone technology.

Key Judgment 3. Armed militia groups will likely continue to make gains on the Myanmar military due to its depleted state despite the added Chinese drone fleet.