Nigeria has been the scene of a devastating war against multiple Islamic insurgent groups in the north, chiefly Boko Haram. Nigerian defence expenditures have accordingly risen to meet this threat. Allegations of human rights abuses by the Nigerian army and police force have likewise risen against the backdrop of this conflict. Therefore, with an increasingly deadly conflict present in the country’s north, Nigeria will likely be the scene of large-scale military engagements.

Key Judgment 1. It is highly likely that Nigerian defence expenditure will rise to meet the threat posed by insurgent groups in the next 12 months.

Key Judgment 2. It is highly likely that the war against Boko Haram will result in increasingly deadly clashes against Nigerian defence forces in the next 12 months.

Key Judgment 3. It is highly likely that allegations of human rights abuses by the Nigerian defence components will rise in the next 12 months.