Paris Olympic Games: Derailed by Russia and Cyberattacks? 

The Paris Olympic Games have seen French authorities taking active steps to counter alleged Russian interference including the barring of some Russian and Belarusian citizens from working in ‘sensitive areas’. Additionally, French authorities are taking active steps to counteract a wide array of cyberattacks seemingly aimed at disrupting the Olympic Games. A significant arson attack against French rail infrastructure has seen the system paralysed for several days. Namely the high-speed rail system connecting Paris to the rest of the country. Thus, the Olympic Games could face disruptions from malicious attacks throughout the rest of the event. 

Key Judgment 1. It is highly likely that there will be an increase in cyberattacks and measures taken against them by French authorities in the run-up to and during the Paris Olympic Games.

Key Judgment 2. It is highly likely that infrastructure in France will be increasingly targeted to cause disruption during the Paris Olympic Games.

Key Judgment 3. It is highly likely that French authorities will disrupt Russian attempts to interfere with or disrupt the Paris Olympic Games.

Key Judgments  

KJ-1. It is highly likely that there will be an increase in cyberattacks and measures taken against them by French authorities in the run-up to and during the Olympic Games.

1. On 26 July, several Israeli athletes who were participating in the Paris Olympic Games had their private data stolen and published on Telegram. [Source]
2. Researchers at the cybersecurity firm Cyble Inc. stated that malicious hackers “Intend to carry out large-scale attacks during the Summer Olympics in Paris”. [Source]
3. Paris chief prosecutor Laure Beccuau announced the launching of a major operation to clean up cyber-ware-infected computers before the Olympics. [Source]
4. In March, the pro-Russian hacker group “Anonymous Sudan” claimed responsibility for a “massive cyberattack” targeting the French Interministerial Directorate of Digital Affairs (DINUM). [Source]
5. In February, data from one in two French people (33 million) was stolen during a cybersecurity breach by several healthcare providers. [Source]

KJ-2. It is highly likely that infrastructure in France will be increasingly targeted to cause disruption during the Paris Olympic Games.

1. Several coordinated arson attacks paralysed the French high-speed rail system in what the rail operator SNCF called a “premeditated, calculated, coordinated” attack. [Source]
2. The French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin stated that four separate plots to sabotage the Paris Olympic Games had been disrupted in the weeks before the Games commencement. [Source]
3. Israel’s Foreign Minister, Israel Katz stated that the sabotage of France’s rail infrastructure was influenced by “Iran’s axis of evil and radical Islam”. [Source]
4. Far-left and eco-oriented groups are being investigated as the ‘main suspects’ behind the French rail sabotage arson attacks. [Source]

KJ-3. It is highly likely that French authorities will disrupt Russian attempts to interfere with or disrupt the Paris Olympic Games. 

1. A Russian chef was revealed as a spy in an alleged plot to sabotage the Paris Olympic Games. [Source]
2. A Russian man was arrested on suspicion of plotting acts of “destabilisation” during the Paris Olympic Games. [Source]
3. French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin stated that “interfering and manipulating information” is not coming from Russia only but from some other countries aswell. [Source]
4. Russian and Belarusian citizens are among those barred from working in restricted zones at the Paris Olympic Games. [Source]

Analytical Summary 

We have high confidence that there will be an increase in destabilisation efforts by malicious actors during the Paris Olympic Games. We base this assessment on news reports. This assessment is also based on statements by government ministers. If French authorities can counter Russian efforts to destabilise the Paris Olympic Games successfully then we expect to see a smooth running of the Games. If this assumption were incorrect we would expect to see further disruption to the Olympic Games themselves. We considered the alternative that cyberattacks during the games would decrease. However, we rejected this due to an increase in attacks immediately before and during the opening stages of the games. More insight into French efforts to disrupt cyberattacks, infrastructure attacks and also alleged Russian interference would improve future assessments of this situation.

Intelligence Cut-off Date: 28 July 2024